That’s how it can sometimes feel, when predicting what the real estate market may do in 2011. So perhaps a good place to start, is with some thoughts that came from speakers and presenters at the recent ‘Forecast Day’ for the real estate industry…..
The key to market recovery in 2011 will be permanent job creation sufficient to stimulate in-migration. With little pent up demand from renters, recovery in the first half of the year will be more modest, picking up pace in the latter half. Recovery of sales will come to single family homes closer to the downtown core, followed by condos and single family homes in the outlying towns.
Affordability will be key to market expansion and price increases are not likely until the latter half of 2011, when inventories have eased and demand has recovered. With interest rates not expected to increase, there is little urgency for buyers to move into the market in the first half of the year. Nonetheless, 2011 will offer buyers unprecedented affordability, low interest rates and a large selection of inventory.
For the first time since 2008, oil patch employees are expecting bonuses and profit share at the end of March 2011, which may translate into a flurry of demand in the mid priced homes. This confidence in the oil patch and improvements in the overall global economy may trigger sales of larger and higher priced homes, prior to an overall rebound in more average-priced property.
This will put upward pressure on average prices, but actual price appreciation will require a resurgence of sales in the entry level homes to fuel a sustainable recovery and create a more balanced market. On the upside, better than expected employment numbers in central Canada may prompt an early boost to interest rates and this may spur buyers who are waiting on the sidelines to jump back into the housing market earlier than anticipated.

©2011 CREB® 2011 economic outlook & calgary regional market forecast